Cover weeks ago it was all over the news and media: UK referendum had voted not to continue staying in the European Union, better known as the Brexit . Minutes after the results be disclosed jumped alarms: What would happen to the free movement of people? How will it affect tourism? And exports and imports? It is still early to know for certain the answers to these questions and many others as the Brexit (Bristish Exit) does not imply an immediate change but it will be a procedure in which the European Union and UK will have to agree how will relations between the two, and these negotiations may develop over a period of up to 2 years.
The National Federation of Transport Associations in Spain, FENADISMER, has published a first analysis that 3 possible scenarios are drawn.
- UK could remain part of the European economic framework and despite not being a member of the European Union, a common market would remain with the countries that are.
- Establishment of bilateral agreements would not involve many changes regarding the situation in the UK before Brexit
- Britain was like USA and was part of the World Trade Organization to agree on part of bilateral agreements with the EU.
Another consequence is that FENADISMER contemplates the repeal of the Community license in the UK, whose function is to allow performing transport between the territories indefinitely.
In this regard and as already mentioned at the beginning, the process of Brexit can reach up to 2 years and therefore the sector is on the lookout for new information that may appear. It is very likely that once separated UK new customs and tariff criteria that affect imports and exports are established.
Spanish exports to the United Kingdom placed as the fourth recipient country. In this regard, it is anticipated that the economic impact is significant if we consider that in 2015 our country exported more than 4.2 million tons of goods by road equivalent to more than 18,230 million and imported 2.5 million tons they generated more than 12,580 million. If we look at the difference, we see that we are talking about a surplus in the Spanish trade balance.Finally, note that the sectors that will be most affected by the federation are automotive, pharmaceutical, general merchandise and food